PACE AND PROGRESSION VALUE ADDED ANNEX

Introduction

The Pilot Tables provide performance data for two different cohorts of students: all students aged 15, and all students at the end of their Key Stage 4 studies. The value added calculations are based on the same methodology for both cohorts.

The age 15 data is the same as the data reported in the main Secondary School Tables. For further information about the median scores, median lines and interpretation of value added figures relating to the age 15 cohort, as well as an explanation of the value added methodology, please refer to the Value Added Technical Annex to the Secondary (GCSE and Equivalent) Tables booklet.

The following information relates specifically to value added calculations for the KS4 cohort.

Students included

The KS2-KS4 value added measure is based on the results achieved by students:

• who completed their KS4 studies in the 2003/04 academic year;
• who were on the school roll on 15 January 2004; and
• for whom we were able to match prior attainment in KS2 tests.

The KS3-KS4 value added measure is based on the results achieved by students:

• who completed their KS4 studies in the 2003/04 academic year;
• who were on the school roll on 15 January 2004; and
• for whom we were able to match prior attainment in KS3 tests.

Median Scores

Key Stage 2 to Key Stage 4

The graphs below give the pattern of median capped point scores for students at the end of KS4 across the range of KS2 point scores nationally - joining the medians gives the 'national median line'. There are two graphs: one shows median scores for mainstream schools and the other shows median scores for students in special schools only.

KS2-KS4 Median Line (Mainstream Schools)


KS2-KS4 Median Line (Special Schools)

The national KS2-KS4 median scores for the Pace and Progression Pilot are shown in the tables below. Table A lists median scores for students in mainstream schools and Table B lists median scores for students in special schools.

Key Stage 3 to Key Stage 4

The graphs below give the pattern of median capped point scores for students at the end of KS4 across the range of KS3 point scores nationally - joining the medians gives the 'national median line'. The first graph shows median scores for mainstream schools and the second shows median scores for students in special schools only.

KS3-KS4 Median Line (Mainstream Schools)


KS3-KS4 Median Line (Special Schools)

The national KS3 to KS4 median scores are shown below. Table C lists median scores for students in mainstream schools and Table D lists median scores for students in special schools.

Interpretation of a school's value added measure

The value added scores are shown as measures based around 1000. Scores above 1000 represent schools where students made more progress on average than similar students nationally, while scores below 1000 represent schools where students made less progress.

Statistical significance

The degree of significance that can be attached to any particular school's value added measure depends, among other factors, on the number of students included in the value added calculation. The smaller the number of students, the less confidence can be placed on the value added measure as an indicator of whether the effectiveness of a school is significantly above or below average.

Key Stage 2 to Key Stage 4 value added measure

As a guide, the tables below show scores that are broadly average based on the size of the cohort for students included in the Key Stage 2 to Key Stage 4 value added measure.

Mainstream Schools

When comparing schools with cohorts of about 50 students, differences of up to 28.6 should not be regarded as statistically significant. For schools with about 100 students, differences of up to 20.2 should not be regarded as significant.

Particular care should be taken with the results for schools where cohort sizes are small. For example, for mainstream schools with 10 students included in the value added measure, only scores of below 946.6 or above 1037.0 are significantly different from the average.

Special schools

When comparing special schools with cohorts of about 10 students, differences of up to 38.1 should not be regarded as statistically significant. For schools with about 20 students, differences of up to 27.0 should not be regarded as significant.

Key Stage 3 to Key Stage 4 value added measure

As a guide, the table below show scores that are broadly average based on the size of the cohort for students included in the Key Stage 3 to Key Stage 4 value added measure.

Mainstream Schools

When comparing schools with cohorts of about 50 students, differences of up to 23.3 should not be regarded as statistically significant. For schools with about 100 students, differences of up to 16.5 should not be regarded as significant.

Particular care should be taken with the results for schools where cohort sizes are small. For example, for mainstream schools with 10 students included in the value added measure, only scores of below 954.3 or above 1027.9 are likely to be significantly different from the average.

Special schools

When comparing special schools with cohorts of about 10 students, differences of up to 36.2 should not be regarded as statistically significant. For schools with about 20 students, differences of up to 25.6 should not be regarded as significant.

Remember: when comparing one school's value added measure to another you should also consider the size of the cohorts.

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